"If the Liberals have a strong showing there, I don't see any reason why they wouldn't call the election. Why wouldn't you press your luck? Why wouldn't you push to get a legitimate majority, especially with the spectre of Donald Trump and a trade negotiation coming up?
And who will lead the NDP? The party has been in a kind of political administration since last year's spectacular election debacle that took it down from 25 seats to seven. Since then, it lost one more members, when Nunavut MP Lori Idlout defected to the Liberals.
But five would-be leaders still believe it has legs. If the succession were hereditary, it would be going to climate-activist Avi Lewis, grandson of former leader David Lewis and son of Stephen Lewis, onetime leader of the Ontario NDP. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he is also today's front runner in support and fundraising.
Could Edmonton-Strathcona MP Heather McPherson (the only sitting MP in the race) do it? Or union leader Rob Ashton (pushing for a return to blue-collar roots), or lesser-known candidates Tony McQuail and Tanille Johnston (an indigenous city councillor and social worker on Vancouver Island.)
In a very real sense, the leadership slate represents all the different directions the NDP could go. The return to its labour roots with Ashton, an appeal to the soggy, not-quite-connected-to-reality aspirations of the bureaucratic class with Ms. McPherson, the wokeness of Johnston. McQuail, the self-described 'green-progressivist' farmer with the Quaker background, is probably closest in overall profile to Canada's original socialists, men like JS Woodsworth and Tommy Douglas who were industrious rural people, deeply religious Christian preachers and left-wing politicians. (On which account McQuail is least likely to win the NDP crown.)
In another sense however, none of it matters in the short term says Andrus.
"The NDP are in a precarious political position... Their vote share collapsed in the 2025 election as support bled to the Liberals under Carney. Without a huge public profile bump, the new leader starts behind."
He notes that even a charismatic figure like former leader Jack Layton, known for his everyman appeal, would struggle to rebuild quickly. The Liberals, he argued, "don't want a strong NDP leader" and could "neuter" whoever emerges by moving fast.
Recent polling also bolsters the case for an early call. Liaison Strategies' March 16, 2026, tracker shows the Liberals with a commanding 14-point national lead (Carney's approval at 63%, though softening slightly). Abacus Data's March 4–11 survey pegs the Liberal advantage at 11 points, with government approval hitting highs around 52% and Carney's net favourability at +20. Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre trail significantly, with polarized numbers (net favourability around -8 in some tracking).
Andrus believes that if the Liberals perform strongly on April 13 – especially in Terrebonne – Andrus thinks Carney would drop the writ "the Monday after the NDP convention," potentially as early as April Fool's Day.
"If I'm Mark Carney, that's 100% what I'm doing," he said. A quick election would secure four years of majority rule, deliver a "legitimate" mandate ahead of U.S. trade talks under President Trump, and deal a "terminal" blow to Poilievre's leadership.
