Calgary gasoline prices on Friday, May 23 (blue line) vs. price of oil.

No suprise. Business 101. Charge the customer as much as you can without losing him. If they paid a certain amount with the carbon tax, charge them the same amount after the carbon tax was removed.

Same thing will happen with the tariffs.
 
You are not accounting for competition.

In a competitive marketplace (eg. gas stations in the city), a market-wide drop in expenses is largely passed on as a price reduction to consumers. Businesses will under-cut each other to gain market share to the point where margins equalize.
 
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