CaptainTrouble
Based Member
Overall, I like the plan. It is conservative relative to the NDP but I agree with Opus that it's too aggressive in many of the assumptions. My biggest fear is that the BC Cons back off on the tax reduction. If they do that then this might as well be Carney's liberal plan for Canada. BC residents themselves aren't going to like this plan. The bottom 60% is going to hate the fact they have less free stuff and that Social Services aren't "properly funded" so even if BC Cons are successful or rather especially if they are successful, we'll see another NDP government in power in the next election that will undo everything.
Here's a review of the plan. Things to note: the plan isn't going to work so they're going to need to make some adjustments. This is what it looks like.
Verdict: About 70% of the platform's actions are likely to be enacted, but fewer than half of its promised outcomes are.
Implementation: about 70% of 39 commitments are likely to be enacted by 2030. Easy items are 75–95% likely: the tax cut, cancelling PST on professional services, DRIPA repeal, ending safe supply, CleanBC and SOGI 123 repeal. Outcomes that depend on markets, courts, unions, First Nations or Ottawa are mostly 5–30% likely: doubling gas, a 45M m³ harvest, the Massey bridge, the health guarantee, 500 RCMP officers.
Most likely reality: the government adjusts in its first budget (February 2027) after a fiscal review panel "finds a bigger hole." The deficit rises to about $15.8 billion in 2027/28 and plateaus near $16 billion. That is better than the unadjusted Monte Carlo BC Conservative "Stronger BC" Plan — Evaluation, Household Impacts & Projections Page 1 of 32 mean of about $19 billion, but about $2 billion a year worse than the Budget 2026 status quo.
How they adjust, in likely order:
1. Slow their own new spending (95%).
2. Cut non-protected ministries further (93%).
3. Raise fees and Crown-corporation revenue (96–99%).
4. Phase in the tax cut ($27,000 basic personal amount for 2027; 56%) and income- test it above $100,000 (57%).
5. Squeeze health-authority and university grants (67%).
6. Hold public-sector wages in the 2029 round (54%). Broad tax increases are small but more likely than not: a school-tax increase is 54% likely, and "no broad tax increase" survives only 43% of draws.
Distribution:
Here's a review of the plan. Things to note: the plan isn't going to work so they're going to need to make some adjustments. This is what it looks like.
Verdict: About 70% of the platform's actions are likely to be enacted, but fewer than half of its promised outcomes are.
Implementation: about 70% of 39 commitments are likely to be enacted by 2030. Easy items are 75–95% likely: the tax cut, cancelling PST on professional services, DRIPA repeal, ending safe supply, CleanBC and SOGI 123 repeal. Outcomes that depend on markets, courts, unions, First Nations or Ottawa are mostly 5–30% likely: doubling gas, a 45M m³ harvest, the Massey bridge, the health guarantee, 500 RCMP officers.
Most likely reality: the government adjusts in its first budget (February 2027) after a fiscal review panel "finds a bigger hole." The deficit rises to about $15.8 billion in 2027/28 and plateaus near $16 billion. That is better than the unadjusted Monte Carlo BC Conservative "Stronger BC" Plan — Evaluation, Household Impacts & Projections Page 1 of 32 mean of about $19 billion, but about $2 billion a year worse than the Budget 2026 status quo.
How they adjust, in likely order:
1. Slow their own new spending (95%).
2. Cut non-protected ministries further (93%).
3. Raise fees and Crown-corporation revenue (96–99%).
4. Phase in the tax cut ($27,000 basic personal amount for 2027; 56%) and income- test it above $100,000 (57%).
5. Squeeze health-authority and university grants (67%).
6. Hold public-sector wages in the 2029 round (54%). Broad tax increases are small but more likely than not: a school-tax increase is 54% likely, and "no broad tax increase" survives only 43% of draws.
Distribution:
- Nearly two-thirds of the tax cut (64%) goes to the top 40% of earners, at $1,052 each
- The bottom 60% average $386 each, because about 1.2 million low-income people pay no BC tax to cut.
- As a share of income, the plan is mildly progressive (about 2.1% vs 1.1% of income across all direct measures).
- Its risks, service restraint and shelved family and health promises, fall hardest on the bottom 60%.
Upvote
5