QatarEnergy declares Force Majeure

Vlad with the kidney strike.
 
Qatar is the 2nd largest LNG exporter in the world.

Most Directly Affected: Asia (80%+ of Qatar’s exports)These countries are the biggest buyers and will face the quickest supply gaps, forcing them to scramble for replacement cargoes (often from the US, Australia, or others) and driving up spot prices:
  • China — Largest single buyer.
  • India
  • South Korea
  • Japan
  • Pakistan
  • Taiwan (gets ~30% of its LNG from Qatar)
Europe (20–25% of Qatar’s exports)Europe has ramped up Qatari imports since cutting Russian pipeline gas. The impact will be felt through higher prices and tighter supply, especially for countries with direct long-term deals:
  • United Kingdom
  • Italy
  • Broader Europe (Spain, France, and others via traders and contracts)
Europe was already vulnerable; this makes the situation worse and pushes buyers toward US LNG.

Asia relies more on terminal tank storage (LNG held at import ports) than large underground facilities. Buffers are typically measured in days/weeks, not months.
  • Japan: Yes — strong buffer. LNG stockpiles equal to ~3 weeks of national consumption. Qatar is only ~4% of imports, so no immediate disruption. Government says supply is stable; they can tap spot market or shift between utilities if needed.
  • Taiwan: Yes — enough LNG stockpiles to last through end of March (after emergency adjustments and moving up other cargoes). Qatar supplies ~30–33% of its LNG. They’re also building extra coal stocks as a backup for power generation.
  • South Korea: Limited public data, but they have terminal storage and activated an emergency response task force. They’ll compete aggressively on the spot market; no immediate crisis declared.
  • China: Some reserves exist (terminal storage + domestic production + pipelines help), but exact LNG levels are not public. Qatar is 29–30% of imports. They’ll divert cargoes and buy spot LNG; crude strategic reserves (3 months) don’t directly help gas.
  • India: Very limited buffer. Terminal stocks are depleting fast; some companies have already started rationing gas (10–30% cuts to industry). Qatar supplies ~45–52% of imports. No large strategic storage — they’ve declared force majeure on some contracts.
  • Pakistan: Minimal reserves. Almost entirely reliant on Qatari LNG. They’re cutting regasification rates and boosting domestic output; short-term pain expected.
Asia summary: Japan and Taiwan can weather 3–4 weeks comfortably. Others (especially India/Pakistan) have thin margins and are already rationing or scrambling for spot cargoes, which will drive global prices higher.Europe (UK, Italy, Spain, France + broader EU)Europe uses underground gas storage (UGS) plus LNG terminals. Levels are critically low heading into spring refill season.
  • Overall EU storage: Only ~30% full as of early March 2026 (vs. ~54% historical average for this time of year). Winter drew down stocks faster than usual due to colder weather.

    finance.yahoo.com
  • Germany: 20.5–27% full — very tight.
  • France: ~21–25% full — vulnerable.
  • Netherlands (main trading hub): ~10% full.
  • Italy: ~50% full — better cushion than most (still below normal ~60%).
  • UK: Not part of EU storage rules; relies more on LNG terminals + limited domestic fields. Facing same global price spike.
Europe summary: Reserves exist but are unusually depleted. Qatar is only ~7% of EU LNG (direct), but the global ripple effect is huge. They’ll need to buy more US/Australian LNG this summer to refill before next winter — prices have already surged 30–50%. No major shortages expected immediately (heating season ends March 31), but industrial users and next winter prep are at risk.
 
I hope the Qataris have their best jew lawyers on it, because force majeure is acts of god, not acts of war.
 
If only Canada had built out LNG export terminals on both coasts and could step in and replace the shut in supply.
 
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Isn't there one almost done in BC?
 
The LNG Canada terminal on the west coast is operating with Train 2 coming online in December. However it took a decade to get approved and there’s like 3 more west coast proposals that have been stalled for a decade or more.

On the east coast Pieridae Energy proposed the Goldboro project in 2012 and it was in regulatory hell until they gave up in 2023. This is the project that the German chancellor was really looking for Canada to move on when he came over in 2022 and Trudeau said the best we could do is green hydrogen.
 
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