No one need shed a single tear for Nicolás Maduro, a ruthless dictator who extinguished Venezuela’s democracy and set its economy into a death spiral.
His sins are many: stolen elections, numerous alleged crimes against humanity, and more than a decade of exploitation of what once was and should still be a prosperous country. And of course, the Trump administration alleges that Mr. Maduro is a narco-terrorist in league with drug cartels.
Mr. Maduro clung to power illegally. Canada and many other nations refused to recognize him as a legitimate head of state. It might be tempting, then, to welcome Saturday’s military action by the United States to seize Mr. Maduro, and his wife, as a justifiable means to the end of a despicable dictatorship.
That temptation should be cast aside. U.S. President Donald Trump has no interest in restoring Venezuelan democracy, or in helping the people who have suffered the rule of Mr. Maduro and his predecessors from Hugo Chávez onward for much of the last three decades.
My body is ready.Mr. Trump’s intentions are always murky, clouded by bursts of bombast. But he said Saturday that he aims to “run” the country at least temporarily, with Venezuela’s oil revenues paying for the costs. The path will be cleared for American oil producers to return to the country, nearly two decades after their assets were confiscated. There will be reimbursement, Mr. Trump vowed. Plunder is the only word for it.
So, this is not a military action for democracy, or international order or human rights, or any of the rationales (sometimes thin, admittedly) that the United States has marshalled in past interventions.
The motivation is simple, and ancient: empire. Saturday marked the formal debut of an imperial America, led by a president who recognizes no law, save that of the jungle. Already, Mr. Trump is turning his attention elsewhere, saying in an interview Saturday that “something’s going to have to be done with Mexico.”
Every country in the Western Hemisphere should be worried, particularly this country, which Mr. Trump so obviously covets as a 51st state.
From Monroe to Trump
In fairness, Mr. Trump did make his intentions crystal clear, with the publication in November of an updated National Security Strategy. It was nothing less than a blueprint for not just traditional U.S. dominance of the Western Hemisphere, but for overt control. (The NSS was decidedly not, as some unwisely asserted, posturing for Mr. Trump’s MAGA base.)
In it, the United States asserts a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine of the 1820s, which declared the Americas off-limits to further European colonization. Mr. Trump’s addendum is to assert that the United States will ensure that governments in the Western Hemisphere “cooperate with us” – meaning obedience and subservience – including “continued access to key strategic locations.”
As we wrote last month, the vision laid out in the National Security Strategy represents a direct challenge to Canadian sovereignty.
As was so vividly demonstrated on Saturday morning, national sovereignty and international law are no barriers to enacting the Trump Corollary. The United States may shortly be turning Venezuela into a de facto possession, running the country either directly or through a short-stringed local puppet.
From Athens to Caracas
The Trump administration purports to be the inheritor of the 19th-century American foreign policy that asserted U.S. control over the Western Hemisphere. In reality, Mr. Trump’s actions have far older roots, stretching back to the Peloponnesian War, in which Athens battled Sparta for supremacy in the fifth century BCE.
In that war, Athens told the island state of Melos to surrender, or face annihilation. Thucydides, the Athenian general and historian, famously articulated the imperial arrogance of his city state in his History of the Peloponnesian War.
Athens at least did not make excuses in making its demands to Melos. The justification was simple: We do this because you cannot stop us. “... you know as well as we do that right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must,” Thucydides wrote.
Trumpism has rarely been summed up so well. Might does not make right; it doesn’t have to. There is no need for any such adornment on naked power.
From Caracas to Ottawa
Ottawa’s response to the U.S. military strike on Venezuela was...well, cautious is a generous description.
In a post on X, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada “welcomes the opportunity for freedom, democracy, peace, and prosperity for the Venezuelan people,” going on to call for “all parties to respect international law.” Those are laudable sentiments. They just don’t bear much relation to current reality.
But what really matters is not what Mr. Carney wrote on Saturday, but what he does today, tomorrow and the next day. Any doubt that the United States intends to enforce the Trump Corollary evaporated as the strikes on Venezuela began.
It’s true that Mr. Trump has forsworn the use of military force in the case of Canada. Assuming for a moment that he keeps to his word, there are myriad ways in which to use economic coercion to accomplish the goal of turning Canada into a de facto protectorate. The threats, tariffs and rhetoric of the last 10 months provide all the proof that is needed.
So what is to be done? The start must be to recognize cold reality. Canada needs a continued partnership with the United States. That is not in any doubt. The questions are, what will be the terms of that partnership, and will Canada bargain from a position of weakness or strength.
The federal government must act on two fundamental issues to fortify its position in dealing with the Trump administration, while understanding that Canada and the United States will remain intertwined.
First, Ottawa must accelerate its push to reduce Canada’s dependence on the U.S. economy. Every new export market reduces Mr. Trump’s leverage. That was true before Saturday’s military action. Now, there is the prospect of increased heavy oil shipments from Venezuela into the U.S. market, which at a minimum will depress the selling price for Alberta bitumen. In that light, a new oil pipeline to the Pacific Coast is not merely desirable, so long as a consensus can be eventually arrived at. It is a national imperative.
Second, the defence of Canada’s sovereignty can no longer be outsourced to the United States. The government needs to lay out a road map to rebuilding Canada’s military capacity, with particular attention on Arctic defence. If Canada continues to leave a vacuum, the Americans will fill it. And they will stay, eroding and eventually displacing Canadian control of the Arctic.
The point of those measures is not to antagonize Mr. Trump or to indulge some fantasy of a challenge to U.S. economic or military power. No, the point is to simply recognize reality: Mr. Trump respects one thing, power, and takes full advantage of any hint of weakness.
The citizens of Melos failed to reach an accommodation with Athens when such a deal would have had acceptable costs. The results of their disdain and delay were disastrous. Canada cannot repeat the mistake of failing to come to grips with reality, urgently – of failing to recognize that we are now caught up in a national emergency.
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