High immigration is worsening Canada's economic problems, says OECD report

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By overseeing one of the most dramatic immigration surges of modern times, Canada has cratered housing affordability, kneecapped productivity and concealed the true state of its economic growth, according to a new profile by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
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The OECD is a club of 38 countries that effectively comprise the developed world. Every two years, each member state receives a comprehensive “economic survey” prepared by OECD economists.
Canada’s most recent survey — published just last week — focuses in particular on the issues of housing affordability and worker productivity, two areas in which Canada now ranks among the worst in the developed world.
And in both instances, the OECD fingers record-high immigration as having made the problems worse.
“Rapid population growth has exacerbated previous housing affordability challenges,” reads the report, adding the blunt recommendation that “housing supply should keep pace with immigration targets.”
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Similarly, the OECD warns that Canada has been packing millions of new workers into its labour force without any comparable increase in “productivity-enhancing investment.” With the economy thus remaining relatively stagnant, Canada’s workers are receiving an increasingly small share of the overall economic pie.

On top of this, the report notes that while Canada used to prioritize high-skilled immigrants such as doctors and engineers, its migration flows are now mostly comprised of low-skilled workers.

“The skill composition of recent immigration, which included many students and temporary workers, has also likely reduced average labour productivity,” it reads.

The OECD’s own stats have long shown that Canada is an outlier in the realm of housing affordability. The OECD’s most recent tally of the “price to income” ratio of Canadian housing shows that it is the highest of all their member states save for Portugal.

Over the last 10 years, Canada has also been one of the worst performers in OECD rankings of GDP growth per capita.

From 2014 to 2022, Canada’s rate of per-capita GDP growth was worse than any other OECD country save Luxembourg and Mexico.

Across those nine years, the average Canadian saw their share of overall GDP rise by just 0.6 per cent per year.

Canada’s “GDP per capita growth has lagged in recent years, particularly compared to its close neighbour, the United States,” wrote the OECD
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But the document is one of the first outside sources to detail the unprecedented surge of Canadian migration overseen by Ottawa in the immediate wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Canada’s population grew rapidly, by 3.0 per cent in 2023 and 2.6 per cent in 2024. This is much faster than in other OECD countries such as the United States or countries in Europe,” it reads.
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Outside world starting to notice how bad it is.
 
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Immigrants own houses at much higher rates than Canadians

A newly released report by Statistics Canada, based on 2021 census data, shows that immigrants have significantly higher rates of home ownership than the Canadian-born population.
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A newly released report by Statistics Canada, based on 2021 census data, shows that immigrants have significantly higher rates of home ownership than the Canadian-born population.

An analysis of the latest national census shows that immigrants occupied 310 housing units per 1,000 people in 2021 — significantly more than Canadian-born individuals at 271 units. Additionally, asylum claimants and temporary foreign workers rent at nearly three times the Canadian-born rate.

Those figures are likely much higher today, given that immigration has surged since the 2021 Census.
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The OECD’s 2025 economic survey of Canada highlights that the federal government’s record-breaking immigration levels are inflating overall GDP while the average Canadian is becoming poorer.

While total GDP is growing due to an influx of over one million newcomers annually, that growth is not translating into higher productivity or increased wealth for individual Canadians. Between the start of 2015 and the end of 2023, real GDP per capita only grew from $57,813 to $58,111 — a $298 or 0.5 per cent increase.

And it may worsen, as recent immigration data suggests that Canada’s population could be expanding more rapidly, despite the Liberal government’s promise to reduce immigration levels.

While the OECD notes that Canada welcomed around one million newcomers annually in 2023 and 2024, equivalent to 3.0% and 2.6% population growth, respectively, new data suggests this could be higher. Federal population data has not yet confirmed the full scope of 2025’s intake.

The report attributes Canada’s sluggish productivity growth in part to the composition of its immigration intake. While Canada once favoured high-skilled immigrants, recent increases have been dominated by temporary and low-skilled workers, along with international students.

“Lower per capita GDP growth also reflects lower productivity of recent immigrants, comprising many low-skilled non-permanent residents,” reads the report.

The OECD warns that the population surge, if not matched by equivalent housing and infrastructure development, can worsen underlying economic issues rather than solve them.

“High immigration cannot be expected to improve GDP per capita or productivity if migrants are mostly absorbed in low-productivity sectors and temporary jobs,” it notes.

The impact is especially acute in housing markets, where record-high immigration has overwhelmed supply. Canada now ranks among the least affordable OECD countries for housing, second only to Portugal by price-to-income ratio.

“Rapid population growth has exacerbated previous housing affordability challenges,” the OECD writes. “Housing supply should keep pace with immigration targets.”

Despite making grand housing promises, like his predecessor, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s housing plan was deemed “just smoke and mirrors” by experts.

The report further warns that despite headline GDP gains, Canada could still be in an actual recession when measured per person — a trend that has persisted since before the pandemic.

“GDP growth received continuous support from high population growth,” the OECD explains. “However, with population growth outpacing GDP growth, GDP per capita has trended lower and fallen below pre-pandemic levels.”

And even with Canada’s population growth inflating its GDP, TD predicts the country will enter a recession and lose 100,000 jobs.
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View: https://x.com/cosmindzs/status/1929973053594972529?s=61&t=gOuPM4AwCWPbUFeBYBm1rg
 
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