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Trump Vs Kamala: The Complete Election Day Guide​

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by Tyler Durden
Monday, Nov 04, 2024 - 09:25 PM
Compilation of reports from NewSquawk (pdf format for pro subs), Deutsche Bank (pdf format for pro subs) Goldman Sachs (pdf format for pro subs), and JPMorgan (pdf 1 and pdf 2 for pro subs)
Presidential Race
  • On Tuesday November 5th, Americans will go to the polls to vote in the Presidential Election with the winner taking office in January 2025 for a four-year term.
  • Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris are locked in a very tight race, and while national polls have Harris slightly in front, betting markets are now mixed after a dramatic weekend before the election. Polls in swing states overall, show Trump leading by a thin margin. What is certain is how momentum has shifted towards the former President in recent weeks and months, albeit with a slight late shift back in favour towards Harris.
  • In terms of averages, FiveThirtyEight’s model assigns an 53% probability of a Trump win, and a 46% probability of Harris winning; pollster Nate Silver sees a 54% and 46% chance respectively. Republicans are clearly favoured to win the Senate, with FiveThirtyEight averages assigning a 90% probability, while the House is neck and neck, with Republicans seeing a 52% likelihood and Democrats 48%.
  • On the night, the pivotal swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) will be
  • viewed to see how the election is playing out, with Pennsylvania seen as the key state, as it is likely, but not impossible, that a
  • candidate will not win the election without it. In the polls and in recent weeks (via 538 and Nate Silver) PA has flipped to Trump.
  • For traders, focus will be on the Dollar, with a Trump win and a Republican sweep seen as the most bullish case for the Buck, with Commodity FX, the Yuan, and MXN amongst EMFX heavily weighed on. If Harris won, the Greenback is expected to be weaker, with commodity FX outperforming along with the EUR. Below we detail scenarios, and more nuanced trades.
  • For reference, the Presidential nominee with the most electoral votes becomes the President of the US. The Electoral College is a process in which electors or representatives from each state in number proportional to the state’s population cast their vote and determine who will be president. Each state gets a certain number of electors based on its representation in Congress, and there are a total of 538 electors, and the candidate who gets more than half (270) wins. As such, a candidate could win the popular vote but lose the election if they do not receive 270 EC votes.
Senate Race
  • Currently, the US Senate has 51 Democrats, including three independents, and 49 Republicans, so the body is controlled by Democrats. There are 34 seats up for grabs in 2024 (including a special election in Nebraska) of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat.
  • Polls currently suggest that the Republicans will take control of the Senate with 51 Republicans vs. 49 Democrats . Within the 34 seats up for grabs, 12 are seen as ‘Safe Democrat’ (CA, CT, DE, HI, MA, MN, NJ, NM, NY, RI, VA, WA), 9 ‘Safe Republican’ (IN, MS, MO, NE, ND, TN, UT, WV, WY), 1 ‘Likely Democrat’(MD), 1 ‘Likely Republican’ (FL), 5 ‘Lean Democrat’ (AZ, MI, NV, PA, WI), 3 ‘Lean Republican’ (MT, TE, TX), 1 ‘Toss-up’ (OH), and 2 ‘Safe Independent’ (ME, VT). In the battlegrounds, using 270towin latest polling, Montana (MT) may flip Republican, with currently Democratic Ohio (OH), a toss-up. Independent West Virginia (WV) is a safe Republican flip.
  • (See Figure 4 at the bottom for Senate composition)
House Race
  • All 435 seats are up for grabs, with 218 needed to win a majority. Entering the 2024 election, Republicans hold a slim majority with 220 seats, and Democrats hold 212, with 3 seats vacant.
  • According to The Cook Political Report, 175 seats are seen as ‘Solid Democrats’, 191 ‘Solid Republican’, 17 ‘Likely Democrat’, 9 ‘Likely Republican’, 13 ‘Lean Democrat', 8 ‘Lean Republican’, leaving 22 ‘toss-ups’ (10 of those are currently Democrat: AK-AL, CO-08, ME-02, MI-08, NC-01, NM-02, PA-07, PA-08, VA-07, WA-03; and 12 of those are currently Republican: AZ-01, AZ-06, CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, CA-45, IA-01, IA-03, NY-19, OR-05, PA-10).
Poll Closing Times
  • Arizona [11 EVs] – polls close at 9pm ET. Results do not begin to be reported until 10pm ET with ballots processed as they come in. Election day mail-in ballots could take multiple days to count. In 2020, the state was called early Weds morning.
  • Georgia [16] – polls close at 7pm ET. Early voting and mail-in ballots will be the first counted with all results expected to be reported on election night. Ballot processing began on Oct 21. In 2020, the state was called on Nov 19 vs. Nov 3 Election Day.
  • Michigan [15] – polls close at 9pm ET. Ballot processing began on Oct 28. All votes will be counted and reported by midday Weds with larger counties finishing earlier. In 2020, the state was called Weds night.
  • Nevada [6] – polls close at 10pm ET. Ballot processing began on Oct 21. Results do not begin until all polling sites are closes with ballots counted if they are post-marked by Nov 5 and arrive by Nov 9. In 2020, the state was called on Saturday (Nov 7).
  • North Carolina [16] – polls close at 7.30pm ET. Ballot processing began on Oct 1 and mail-in ballots will be processed first, followed by early voters, and then Election Day votes. The vast majority of ballots will be counted on Election Day but given the impact of Hurricane Helene, some mail-in ballots could be counted late. In 2020, the state was called more than a week later, on Friday (Nov 13).
  • Pennsylvania [19] – polls close at 8pm. Mail-in ballots are not allowed to be processed until Election Day and that means the final reporting may take multiple days. In 2020, the state was called on Saturday (Nov 7).
  • Wisconsin [10] – polls close at 9pm ET. Look for results to conclude no later than midday on Wednesday. In 2020, the state was called Weds afternoon.

Results
  • Overall, it may take several days or even weeks to count and confirm the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election due to varying state ballot-processing rules, potential recounts and anticipated high mail-in voting. As a reminder, in the 2020 election, AP declared Biden the official winner at 11:26 am on November 7th, roughly three and a half days after the polls closed on Election Day.
  • In addition, an automatic statewide recount is mandated if the margin is 0.5% or less between candidates. Regarding Pennsylvania, the key swing state, final recount results must legally be submitted by November 26th, with the official announcement expected on November 27th.
  • As of Monday morning (Nov. 4th), according to a tally by the Election Lab at the University of Florida, more than 78.023mln Americans had already voted in early in-person voting or via mail-in ballots.
  • Looking at polling results times in states from the last two elections, it can be extremely varied. Regarding the seven swing states, using media call time, Arizona was 'Too Close' in 2016 and 02:51 on Nov 4, 2020. Following the sequence of using 2016 time followed by 2020 time, Georgia was 04:33 and 15:21 on Nov 13, Michigan 'Too Close' and 17:58 on Nov 4, Nevada 05:20 and 12:13 on 7th November, North Carolina 04:11 and 16:45 on Nov 13, Pennsylvania 06:35 and 11:25 on 7th November, and Wisconsin 07:29 and 14:16.
  • In other words, MI, AZ and WI were called within 24 hours of polls closing on Nov 3, 2020. PA was called the morning of Nov 7, clinching it for Biden

  • In 2020, AP called the election for Biden on Sat. Nov 7 @11:26 AM – before the theoretical futility point (if the total # of votes known)

  • Recount rules for Swing states

Key State Battlegrounds
  • Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia are the pivotal swing states with Pennsylvania arguably the most pivotal. Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia are the ‘Sun Belt’ states and if Trump wins these three states, he wouldn’t need many more. If Trump wins these three states, he’d be on a path to 262 electoral votes, meaning he’d only have to take one of the blue-wall states (Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin) to win the White House.
  • Overall in recent weeks, momentum has dramatically shifted towards the former President Trump and he is still deemed the favourite across betting market Polymarket, but over the weekend (Nov 2nd-3rd) there was once again a notable tilt back towards Harris, with PredictIt actually having the VP back in front after some of the final polls before the election were released. Polls still have Harris up nationally but net down across the swing states, although the NYT/Siena final polls showed the race was deadlocked in six out of the seven battleground states and that all seven of them were within the margin of error. As such, the race still remains extremely close nationally and in the battleground states, with the vast majority of polls still within the margin of error.
  • On the swing states, Harris leads in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump leads in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, which are all bigger than any of Harris’ leads with Pennsylvania and Nevada also marginally in Trump’s favour, according to 538's averages. Using RCP's averages, Harris also leads in two of the Blue Wall states (Wisconsin and Michigan), with Trump leading in the other 5.
  • Bottom line: 7 states will decide the election. The margins of victory in 2016 and 2020 were less than 5ppts ( ~200k votes) in most cases

  • In 2020, it took 8 hours from polls closing for GA and WI to report 90%-plus of votes versus 24 in MI and 48 in PA

Pennsylvania
  • Within the swing states, Pennsylvania is arguably the most pivotal as polls have the state neck-and-neck, albeit with Trump now eking out a lead. PA has 19 EC votes, so desks note a couple of tens of thousands voters in the State could decide the election, as it is unlikely, albeit not impossible, a candidate will win without PA. Pennsylvania is one of the three ‘Blue Wall’ states, alongside Michigan and Wisconsin, and in 2020.
  • Biden carried PA by just over 1ppt point, a raw margin of only about 80,000 votes in a state that cast almost 7mln for President.
  • Additionally, PA was called for Biden 87.2 hours after the polls closed in 2020. GA took far longer to be officially called because of a recount

Winning Combinations
  • Winning combinations of battleground states for Harris

  • Winning combinations of battleground states for Trump

Key Battleground Counties
  • These are the bellwether counties to monitor in swing states for clues as to how each candidate may be performing

Electoral College
  • If the election followed suit to either 538 or Nate Silver averages (details below), Trump would win the Presidential election. In the figures below, Figure 1 is the current map of the Electoral College, aside from the pivotal seven swing states. Figure 2 is using 538 and Nate Silver averages, as both have Trump and Harris having leads in the same swing states. However, on the flip side, Figure 3 is using the final NYT/Siena poll (details above) and that shows Harris coming out victorious.
  • (Figure 5 at the bottom for EC composition)
Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

What about election disputes? All recounts and/or disputes must be settled by December 11
  • Safe harbor deadline for states to finalize results via certificates of ascertainment appointing electors is December 11
  • Electors meet in the states and DC on December 17
  • Congress meets to count electoral college results on January 6, 2025
  • Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022
  • Identifies each state’s Governor, unless otherwise specified in the laws or constitution of a state in effect on Election Day, as responsible for submitting the certificate of ascertainment identifying that state’s electors. Congress could not accept a slate submitted by a different official.
  • Provides for expedited review, including a three-judge panel with a direct appeal to the Supreme Court, of certain claims related to a state’s certificate identifying its electors.
  • Affirmatively states that the constitutional role of the Vice President, as the presiding officer of the joint meeting of Congress, is solely ministerial and that he or she does not have any power to solely determine, accept, reject, or otherwise adjudicate disputes over electors.
  • Raises the threshold to lodge an objection to electors to at least one-fifth of the duly chosen and sworn members of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
  • Legislation specifies that a state could move its presidential election day, which otherwise would remain the Tuesday immediately following the first Monday in November every four years, only if necessitated by “extraordinary and catastrophic” events
 
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